Orlando Advance Peace
The Advance Peace model assigns specific workers to specific highest-risk individuals for intensive daily engagement — structurally different from the street outreach programs in Baltimore and Chicago. UC-Berkeley’s 2024 independent evaluation found a 20% reduction in firearm homicides and a 36% reduction in nonfatal shootings in year one. By year three, program neighborhoods showed an 88% reduction in gun homicides and a 71% reduction in shooting victims, per the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition. Orlando recorded just 10 total homicides in 2025 — its lowest since 1971.
The Model
The Advance Peace model was developed by DeVone Boggan, founder and CEO of Advance Peace, in Richmond, California, per program materials and media reporting. Worker Raysean Brown described checking in with assigned individuals “three times a day,” per WESH reporting. The intensity optimizes for depth per person rather than breadth of population coverage.
Orlando adopted the model and expanded from five to eight neighborhoods as the UC-Berkeley results accumulated, per ClickOrlando reporting.
The Evidence
UC-Berkeley’s 2024 independent evaluation of the first year found a 20% reduction in firearm homicides and a 36% reduction in nonfatal shootings in program neighborhoods, with $8.3 to $8.9 million in taxpayer savings, per ClickOrlando. The methodology compared outcomes in Advance Peace neighborhoods to comparable areas without the program — stronger attribution than citywide trend data, though not a randomized controlled trial.
By the program’s third year, per the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition (February 2026), results deepened: an 88% reduction in gun homicides and a 71% reduction in shooting victims. Orlando recorded just 10 total homicides in 2025 — its lowest since 1971, per media reporting. A UCF criminologist cautioned that national trends may contribute, per the Hanford Sentinel.
Replication: Lansing
Michigan State University’s March 2025 evaluation found a 52% decline in fatal shootings in Lansing after Advance Peace implementation, per The Trace. Fatal shootings dropped 19% more in Lansing than nationally. Lansing Police Chief Ellery Backus: “I don’t know anybody else can pick up that space.” One caveat the evaluation’s own authors flagged: the decline was greater in non-program areas, per the Michigan Advance.
Two-city results from the same model, each with independent university evaluations, provide stronger evidence than either city alone.
Sacramento, California also adopted the Advance Peace model. UC-Berkeley studies of programs in Stockton and Sacramento found they “helped to reduce gun violence and did so at a fraction of the cost of traditional law enforcement,” per CBS San Francisco and UC-Berkeley (March 2021). The multi-city replication evidence — UC-Berkeley in Orlando, Michigan State in Lansing, UC-Berkeley in Stockton/Sacramento — provides documentation that the model produces results across different jurisdictions, populations, and evaluators.
The intensive per-person model creates a known tradeoff: a worker assigned to a small number of highest-risk individuals cannot simultaneously serve a larger caseload. The UC-Berkeley evaluation documented $8.3 to $8.9 million in taxpayer savings despite this per-person intensity — suggesting the violence reduction per participant exceeds the higher per-person cost. But dose-response data — how much contact is needed for how long to produce durable outcomes — has not been published.
Political Context
Florida is a Republican-governed state. The national survey found 81% support when CVI is described as “small groups of trained professionals” working in specific neighborhoods. The “violence prevention professionals” frame tests across partisan lines. The “gun violence intervention” frame activates partisan resistance.
Funding Vulnerability
Orlando’s program relied significantly on federal grants prior to the April 2025 contraction. The $8.3-$8.9 million in documented taxpayer savings from the UC-Berkeley evaluation exceeds the program’s cost — but federal vulnerability from the 2025 DOJ terminations threatens programs that have not diversified, per Reuters and Giffords reporting.
**Key Evidence:** UC-Berkeley independent evaluation — Year 1: 20% firearm homicide reduction, 36% nonfatal reduction, $8.3-$8.9M taxpayer savings. Year 3: 88% gun homicide reduction, 71% shooting victim reduction. Orlando: 10 total homicides in 2025, lowest since 1971 (Tier 1 evaluation; Tier 2 citywide). **Replication:** Lansing MI — MSU evaluation, 52% fatal shooting decline (Tier 1). Chief Backus endorsement. **Team:** Credible messengers (“neighborhood change agents”) with intensive daily engagement, 3x/day check-ins **Funding:** Federal grants (pre-2025 cuts); saved $8.3-$8.9M. Federal vulnerability from 2025 contraction. **Key Vulnerability:** Federal funding dependency; intensive per-person cost limits coverage; dose-response data unavailable
The DeVone Boggan Model
Advance Peace was developed by DeVone Boggan in Richmond, California, per program materials and media reporting. The model’s distinguishing feature: a “Peacemaker Fellowship” that selects a small cohort of the highest-risk individuals for intensive, sustained engagement. Workers assigned to specific people maintain daily contact — the “three times a day” schedule documented by WESH — and provide a combination of mentoring, life coaching, service connection, and in some models, stipends tied to milestones.
The model has been adopted in Orlando, Lansing, Sacramento, Stockton, and Fresno, per multiple sources. UC-Berkeley studies of programs in Stockton and Sacramento found they “helped to reduce gun violence and did so at a fraction of the cost of traditional law enforcement,” per CBS San Francisco and UC-Berkeley. Oakland shifted $17 million of its public safety budget to fund “doubling the number of violence interrupters,” per the Chronicle.
The Evidence Trajectory
The Orlando results document a trajectory that strengthens over time. Year one (UC-Berkeley 2024 evaluation): 20% reduction in firearm homicides, 36% reduction in nonfatal shootings, $8.3 to $8.9 million in taxpayer savings. Year three (Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, February 2026): 88% reduction in gun homicides, 71% reduction in shooting victims. The city recorded just 10 total homicides in 2025 — its lowest since 1971.
The trajectory suggests that the model’s intensive per-person engagement produces cumulative effects: relationships deepen over time, trust increases, and the network effects of removing high-risk individuals from violence cycles compound. A UCF criminologist cautioned that national trends may contribute, per the Hanford Sentinel — a legitimate caveat given that homicides declined nationally during the same period.
The Lansing replication provides a partial answer to the generalizability question. Michigan State University’s March 2025 evaluation found a 52% decline in fatal shootings, per The Trace. Fatal shootings dropped 19% more in Lansing than nationally. The evaluation’s own authors flagged that the decline was greater in non-program areas than in program areas, per the Michigan Advance — a caveat that matters for attribution. Two-city results from the same model, each with independent university evaluations, provide stronger evidence than either city alone.
Political Context and Sustainability
Orlando operates in a Republican-governed state. The program’s success under Governor DeSantis’s administration documents that CVI can function in politically conservative environments when the framing emphasizes public safety outcomes rather than ideological positioning.
The program expanded from five to eight neighborhoods as results accumulated, per ClickOrlando. That expansion decision — made by local officials based on documented outcomes — represents the political dynamic CVI supporters describe: results create their own constituency.
The funding vulnerability remains real. Orlando’s program relied significantly on federal grants prior to the April 2025 contraction. The $8.3 to $8.9 million in documented taxpayer savings from the UC-Berkeley evaluation exceeds the program’s cost — but the documented returns do not automatically translate into replacement funding when federal grants are terminated. The programs most insulated from federal contraction are those in the nine states with Medicaid reimbursement (per HAVI) and those with state or local budget lines. Florida is not currently among the nine Medicaid CVI states.
The Dose-Response Question
The intensive per-person model creates a documented tradeoff: a worker assigned to a small number of highest-risk individuals cannot simultaneously serve a larger caseload. The three-times-daily contact schedule, per WESH, represents a staffing intensity that limits how many people each worker can serve.
How much contact is needed, for how long, to produce durable outcomes? This dose-response question has not been published for Advance Peace. The UC-Berkeley evaluation documented population-level results but not the per-participant engagement data that would answer whether 18 months of daily contact produces the same outcome as 12 months, or whether twice-weekly contact works as well as daily contact. For cities considering the Advance Peace model, the dose-response gap means they cannot yet optimize the intensity-coverage tradeoff with evidence — they must choose between Orlando’s intensive model (proven but expensive per person) and a less intensive adaptation (untested but serving more people).
The program’s three-year trajectory — from pilot to 88% gun homicide reduction to 10 total city homicides in 2025 — documents the arc from proof of concept to population-level impact in a single jurisdiction, with independent university evaluation at each stage.
Source Appendix
1. Advance Peace model — DeVone Boggan, Richmond CA origin. Program materials.
2. UC-Berkeley Year 1 — 20%/36%, $8.3-$8.9M. ClickOrlando, August 2024. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2024/08/01/gun-violence-reduced-in-orlando-neighborhoods-due-to-intervention-program-heres-how/
3. Year 3 — 88%/71%, 10 homicides in 2025. Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, February 2026. https://floridarrc.com/cvi/ Hanford Sentinel (UCF criminologist caveat).
4. Raysean Brown — three times per day. WESH, 2023.
5. Lansing — 52%, MSU March 2025. The Trace, May 2025. https://www.thetrace.org/2025/05/advance-peace-lansing-michigan-shootings/ Michigan Advance, June 2025 (authors’ caveat).
6. Chief Backus. The Trace, May 2025.
7. CVI program descriptions and survey — 81% with concrete description. 2024.
8. Federal vulnerability. Reuters, April 2025. Giffords, September 2025.